🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|