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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Older Squad Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test team being over 30, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is here, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a much more significant change with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.