🔗 Share this article

Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.